set p:
no inflation
with inflation
Square area is the probability of each scoreline: blue is the independent Poisson part, orange the injected level-score mass, and dashed outlines mark the no-inflation baseline. Goal rates fixed at λH = 1.4, λA = 1.1. The fitted model puts p near 0.01; larger values here are deliberate exaggeration. Hover a cell for its decomposition.